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At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 40.5 North, longitude 62.0 West. Bill is moving very quickly to the northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h) and a continued fast northeastward motion is expected through Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Bill is forecast to become a posttropical low by this evening and dissipate on Wednesday. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
Bill remains a fairly well organized tropical storm. Microwave satellite data indicate that the cyclone still has a fairly tight core and curved bands on the north and west sides of the circulation. However, drier air is wrapping into the southeast portion of the storm, and convection has been decreasing in intensity over the past couple of hours. A very recent ASCAT-A pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt southeast of the center. Therefore, the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt.
The tropical storm is racing northeastward, and the latest initial motion is estimated to be 055/33 kt. Bill is embedded in the mid-latitude jet stream and a continued fast northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. This motion should take the storm over much cooler waters on the north side of the Gulf Stream Current in about 12 hours. These cold waters, drier air, and mid-latitude dynamics should cause Bill to transition to an extratropical cyclone later today. All of the models agree that the extratropical cyclone should dissipate in 24 to 36 hours over or near Atlantic Canada.
Bill will likely remain at about the same intensity until it dissipates by late Wednesday. It should be noted that given the fast forward speed, most of the strong winds will be on the southeast side of the system.
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At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 67.2 West. Bill is moving rapidly toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by gradual weakening tonight and Wednesday morning when Bill will be moving over colder water. The system is forecast to become a post-tropical low by tonight and dissipate on Wednesday.
Los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hacia afuera hasta 90 millas (150 km) desde el centro.
La presión central mínima estimada es 999 mb (29.50 pulgadas).
Bill has developed an impressive convective shear pattern to be so far north in latitude. AMSU-A temperature data around 0117 UTC indicated that Bill has a marginal mid-level warm core, suggesting that the cyclone might be a hybrid low pressure system. A late-arriving ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated surface winds up to 42 kt in the southeastern about 40 nmi from the center, plus an expansion of the 34-kt wind field in that quadrant as well. Convection has continued to increase since the time of that earlier ASCAT data as indicated by a 0600Z Dvorak satellite data-T estimate of 3.0/45 kt from TAFB. Therefore, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt.
Bill's motion is more rapidly toward the northeast now, or 055/27 kt. The latest track forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory. Bill is embedded within southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough and associated cold front, and this steering pattern is expected to persist until Bill dissipates as an extratropical low near eastern Newfoundland in 36 h or less. The new NHC track forecast lies down the middle of the very tightly packed guidance model suite.
Despite strong southwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt, Bill has managed to maintain deep convection while passing over marginal sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 26.5 deg C. However, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs near 20 deg C by 12 h and over sharply colder waters thereafter while the wind shear concurrently increases. As a result, Bill is expected to transition to an extratropical low pressure system and possible gale area at or shortly after the 12-h period, followed by dissipation by 36 h when the cyclone will be near eastern Newfoundland. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.
Emitido: 800 a. M. EDT martes 15 de junio de 2021
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles east-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur during that time period. However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information.
Probabilidad de formación en 48 horas ... baja ... 20 por ciento.
Probabilidad de formación en 5 días ... alta ... 70 por ciento.
2. Showers and thunderstorms have decreased and become less organized during the past several hours in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while the wave moves westward. Thereafter, a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds should limit the chances of formation when the wave reaches the central tropical Atlantic.
Probabilidad de formación en 48 horas ... baja ... 10 por ciento.
Probabilidad de formación en 5 días ... baja ... 10 por ciento.
Los avisos públicos sobre el proyecto de ley sobre tormentas tropicales se publican bajo el título WTNT32 KNHC de la OMM y el encabezado MIATCPAT2 de AWIPS.
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